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Can Trump exhaustion lead to Biden enthusiasm? It’s a question that many are asking as we head into election season. With the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the protests against police brutality, and the general chaos that seems to characterize the current political landscape, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed and burnt out. But could this sense of exhaustion actually lead to a renewed sense of enthusiasm and engagement? One Michigan county may provide a test case.
In Macomb County, Michigan, a traditionally conservative area that went for Trump in 2016, Democrats are feeling cautiously optimistic. While the county still has a Republican majority, there are signs that some residents are disappointed with Trump’s handling of the pandemic and social unrest. As one Democratic strategist in the area put it, “People are just tired of the daily chaos and drama. There’s a sense that we need to get back to something more stable and normal.”
So how might this translate into a win for Biden? The argument goes that if enough moderate Republicans and independents swing his way, and if Democratic turnout is high, he could flip the county and, by extension, the state as a whole. This would be a major victory for the Biden campaign, and could be a bellwether for other formerly Republican strongholds in the Midwest and Rust Belt.
Of course, this is a tall order. Trump won the state of Michigan by just over 10,000 votes in 2016, so any gains by Biden would have to be significant. And while Macomb County may be a microcosm of the wider electorate, it’s not necessarily representative of other areas that are crucial to winning the White House. Still, there are reasons to believe that Trump exhaustion could be a real phenomenon, and that it might play in Biden’s favor.
For one thing, the pandemic has taken a toll on everyone, regardless of political affiliation. Whether you’re a die-hard Trump supporter or a staunch Democrat, it’s hard to deny the disruption to daily life that has been caused by COVID-19. Millions of Americans have lost their jobs, thousands have died, and there’s no clear end in sight. While the Trump administration has taken some steps to address the crisis, many feel that they have been ineffective or insufficient. As a result, some voters may be looking for a change – any change – and Biden may be seen as a more reliable and competent leader when it comes to public health.
Additionally, the protests against police brutality, sparked by the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, have galvanized many Americans who may have been feeling politically apathetic. While some have criticized the protests as being too disruptive or violent, others see them as an essential expression of frustration and anger at systemic racism. Trump’s response to the protests has been mixed – he has called for “law and order,” while also calling Floyd’s death a “terrible thing” – but many feel that he has not done enough to address the underlying issues. Biden, on the other hand, has come out in support of the protests and has pledged to take action on racial justice if elected.
All of this is to say that there are many reasons why Trump exhaustion could translate into Biden enthusiasm. But it’s also important to note that there are still many obstacles in the way of a Democratic victory. The Trump campaign is already gearing up for a tough fight, with rallies and ads and other tactics designed to rally the base and discredit Biden. And while some may be feeling exhausted or disillusioned with Trump, others remain fiercely loyal and will be hard to sway.
What’s more, the election is still months away, and anything could happen between now and then. There could be a major shift in the public mood, or some unexpected event could sway the election decisively in one direction or another. In short, there are no guarantees.
Still, the fact that Macomb County is even in play is a signal that things may be shifting on the ground. Whether or not this will translate into a win for Biden remains to be seen. But for now, it’s clear that there is a sense of urgency and engagement among many Democrats, and a growing weariness among some Republicans. Whether this will be enough to tip the scales in November is anyone’s guess – but it’s going to be fascinating to watch.
