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By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
There will be one Game 3 in the MLB Wild Card Round, and I have you covered from a betting perspective.
I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.
That is the school bell, which means class is back in session!
Here is my favorite bet for Sunday, with odds via FOX Bet.
San Diego Padres at New York Mets (7:37 p.m. ET Sunday, ESPN)
I’ll be honest: this pitching matchup may be my favorite of the entire Wild Card round.
Joe Musgrove has always had a strong repertoire, but this season has been special.
Run value is a statistic that measures how many runs are normally scored based on runners on base, outs and the count. This stat can then be divided into pitching categories, and for pitchers, the lower the run value, the better the pitch.
Musgrove’s cutter ranks 80th among all pitches from all pitchers, and his four-seamer is in the top 100. Chris Bassitt’s sinker comes in 24th, and even though his other pitches are not as highly ranked, he does use a total of six pitches to keep hitters guessing. The chess game the starters will play makes me love the Under.
PICK: Under 6.5 total runs scored combined at FOX Bet
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.
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