NFL Week 10 betting nuggets

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Underdogs continue to dominate this NFL season, going 20-7-1 ATS over the last two weeks, with a winning outright record each week. Underdogs are covering over 57 percent of the time for the season.

One of the underdogs to win last week was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who pulled off the biggest upset of the NFL season when they upset the Buffalo Bills as 15.5-point underdogs. Buffalo is a big favorite again this week as it becomes the first team since the 2007 New England Patriots to be favored by at least 12 points in three straight games.

Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are expected to return this week. Rodgers’ Green Bay Packers have covered eight games in a row, their longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Wilson is 24-12-2 ATS as an underdog in his career.

The second-longest cover streak belongs to the Tennessee Titans at five straight, including four straight outright wins as an underdog. This week, the Titans are back in the favorite role against the New Orleans Saints, who have also excelled as underdogs, going 3-0 outright.

Week 9 Recap

• Underdogs: 10-3 ATS, 7-6 outright last week. 77-57-1 ATS, 54-81 outright this season.

• Road teams: 10-4 ATS, 7-7 outright last week. 77-58-1 ATS, 70-66 outright this season.

• Unders: 7-7 last week, 73-61-2 this season.

Season Recap

• Best teams ATS: Green Bay Packers (8-1), Dallas Cowboys (7-1), Arizona Cardinals (7-2), Tennessee Titans (7-2)

• Worst teams ATS: Washington Football Team (1-7), Kansas City Chiefs (2-7), New York Jets (2-6), San Francisco 49ers (2-6)

• Teams favored in every game: Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Teams underdog in every game: Houston Texans, New York Jets, Detroit Lions

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5), Sunday at 1 ET

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ESPN Chalk home

  • Indianapolis has covered five of its last six games, and has covered four straight games against teams with losing records.

  • Since 1990, teams coming off an upset win as a 14-point underdog are 4-14-1 ATS. However, both times it happened last season, the team won outright again as an underdog. The New York Jets upset Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog, while Cincinnati upset Houston as a 7.5-point underdog, both in Week 16.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-2.5), Sunday at 1 ET

  • New England has covered three straight games.

  • New England has gone over the total in four straight games after going under the total in its first four games.

  • Cleveland is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season and is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog including last season’s postseason.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Dallas is 7-1 ATS this season, but it is coming off its first non-cover of the season. Dallas is 5-0 ATS in conference games.

  • Atlanta has covered three straight road games.

  • Atlanta has covered four of the last five meetings against Dallas, including last season’s matchup when Atlanta lost 40-39 as a 3-point underdog. Dallas overcame a 20-0 deficit to win outright.

Buffalo Bills (-13) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 ET

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  • Buffalo has not been a double-digit favorite against New York since 1992. Buffalo is 0-3 outright as a double-digit favorite against New York.

  • Buffalo games are 9-1 to the under after a loss since 2019 and 5-0 to the under since last season.

  • Double-digit home underdogs are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 outright this season, all since Week 8.

  • New York has gone over the total in five straight games after going under in the first three games.

  • New York is one of three teams to be an underdog in every game (Detroit, Houston).

  • New York has won its last two home games outright as at least six-point underdogs.

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (-3), Sunday at 1 ET

  • New Orleans is 49-26 ATS after a loss under Sean Payton.

  • New Orleans is 3-0 outright and ATS as an underdog this season, and it is 4-0 ATS when not favored by at least three points. New Orleans is 3-0 ATS against teams with winning records.

  • New Orleans is 31-13 ATS on the road since 2016 (14-5 ATS as road underdog). Since 2018, New Orleans is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog.

  • New Orleans is 13-4 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since 2018.

  • Tennessee has won and covered five straight games, the last four as an underdog. Tennessee is 2-2 ATS outright and ATS as a favorite this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) at Washington Football Team, Sunday at 1 ET

  • Washington is 1-7 ATS overall, the worst mark in the NFL. Washington is 0-5 ATS, 0-4 ATS at home, and 0-6 ATS against teams with winning records.

  • Taylor Heinicke is 2-7 ATS in his career including the playoffs. One of those covers came in last season’s NFC Wild Card Game as Washington (+8.5) covered at home vs Tampa Bay (lost by 8).

  • Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS on the road this season.

  • Tom Brady is 12-7 ATS in his career off a bye, including four straight covers.

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Over the last five seasons, teams coming off a bye week are 3-11 ATS against teams coming off a Monday Night Football game, including 0-2 ATS this season.

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  • Teams 0-5 or worse outright are 18-6 ATS when coming off a bye since byes were reintroduced in 1990.

  • Pittsburgh has failed to cover eight straight times as a favorite including the playoffs, going 3-5 outright in that span.

  • Detroit is 8-1 ATS after a bye week since 2012.

  • Five of Detroit’s last six games have gone under the total.

  • Detroit is one of three teams to be an underdog in every game (New York Jets, Houston).

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5), Sunday at 4:05 ET

  • Minnesota is 32-16-1 ATS after a loss under Mike Zimmer (since 2014).

  • Minnesota has played seven one-score games, most in the NFL, including three overtime games and four games decided by three points or fewer.

  • Minnesota is 0-5 outright against teams with winning records (2-3 ATS) and 3-0 outright against teams with losing records (2-1 ATS).

  • All four Minnesota road games have gone over the total.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10), Sunday at 4:05 ET

  • Arizona is 7-2 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

  • Carolina is 9-3 ATS in road games under Matt Rhule.

  • Matt Rhule is 2-0 ATS as an underdog of at least nine points and has never been an underdog of more than 10 points.

  • Arizona is 4-0 ATS as a favorite of at least seven points under Kliff Kingsbury with all four games going under the total.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-5), Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Green Bay is 8-1 ATS this season with eight straight covers. It’s the longest cover streak Green Bay has had in the Super Bowl era, and it ties 2020 Buffalo for the longest cover streak in the last three seasons. The last longer streak was by New Orleans in 2018 (9 straight).

  • Green Bay is 3-0 ATS at home this season and 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records.

  • Russell Wilson is 10-1 ATS as an underdog of at least four points (7-4 outright). He is 24-12-2 ATS as an underdog (19-18-1 SU).

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-2.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Denver is 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records.

  • Denver games are 7-2 to the under this season, including three straight unders.

  • Teddy Bridgewater is 3-6 outright and ATS as a favorite since 2018, and he is 2-5 outright and ATS as a favorite since 2020. Denver is 2-2 as a favorite this season.

  • Denver is 3-0 ATS against NFC East teams this season.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 8:20 ET

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  • Kansas City is 0-6 ATS this season against teams currently with winning records and 2-7 ATS overall.

  • Kansas City is 0-5 ATS against AFC opponents this season.

  • Patrick Mahomes is 1-5 ATS against AFC West opponents after beginning his career 10-3 ATS against them.

  • Las Vegas is 3-1 outright and ATS as an underdog this season.

  • Overs are 10-2 at Allegiant Stadium since it opened last season.

Los Angeles Rams (-4) at San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 ET

  • San Francisco is 0-4 ATS at home this season.

  • San Francisco is 0-3 ATS in division games this season.

  • Los Angeles is 15-6 ATS after a loss under Sean McVay (11-3 ATS since 2019).

  • Los Angeles has failed to cover three straight games.

  • Home teams are 6-2 ATS on Monday Night Football this season, and underdogs have covered four straight. Home underdogs are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 outright on Monday Night Football this season.