NFL Week 11 game picks, schedule guide, fantasy football tips, odds, injuries and more

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Nov 19, 2021

  • ESPN staff

The Week 11 NFL schedule for the 2021 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and, of course, final score picks.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football info as well. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 11 slate, including Dak Prescott vs. Patrick Mahomes, a big divisional matchup for the Packers, Jonathan Taylor against the Bills’ tough run defense and Cam Newton facing his old coach Ron Rivera. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Giants and the Buccaneers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:

Thursday: NE 25, ATL 0

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
71.2 | Spread: GB -1.5 (47.5)

What to watch for: The Mike Zimmer-Aaron Rodgers chess match is always a great schematic battle. Eight of the Vikings’ nine games have been decided by seven or fewer points, including six in a row, and Rodgers has 50 career passing touchdowns to just seven interceptions against them. Zimmer knows Rodgers has already seen everything he’ll get from the Vikings’ defense, so it’ll be a matter of timing and execution from Minnesota to try to contain the Packers QB while using the home crowd to its advantage. — Courtney Cronin

2 Related

Bold prediction: Rodgers’ streak of touchdown passes (26) since his last interception against a division opponent will end on Sunday. He threw an uncharacteristic pick last week against Seattle, and he didn’t get the chance to practice much this week to try to recapture his timing. And don’t be surprised if it’s Minnesota safety Harrison Smith who picks him off. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has an NFL-best 9.0 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season (18 touchdowns, two interceptions). The Packers are 8-0 when intercepting a pass this season and 0-2 when they don’t.

Injuries: Packers | Vikings

What to know for fantasy: The Packers’ AJ Dillon has been a top-20 running back in consecutive weeks and is now set to assume a full workload with Aaron Jones on the shelf. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Green Bay is 9-1 against the spread (ATS) this season with nine straight covers. It’s the longest cover streak Green Bay has had in the Super Bowl era, and it is tied for the third-longest single-season streak. Read more.

Demovsky’s pick: Packers 23, Vikings 20
Cronin’s pick: Packers 24, Vikings 23
FPI prediction: GB, 54.3% (by an average of 1.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Packers’ Rodgers (toe) sits out practice, plans to play vs. Vikings … Vikings activate safety Smith from COVID-19 list, designate CB Peterson to return from IR … Packers offer ‘ownership’ shares for first time in 10 years … Vikings’ newfound aggressiveness focuses on Jefferson, playmakers to lead the way

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
70.9 | Spread: BUF -7.5 (49.5)

What to watch for: Can the Bills slow down Colts running back Jonathan Taylor? Buffalo’s defense has limited opponent backs this season, with only one rushing for over 100 yards (Derrick Henry). Taylor has the most runs of 10-plus yards in the NFL, while the Bills are tied for the second-fewest long rushes allowed. Something has to bend. Overall this season, Buffalo’s defense has overwhelmed opponents, averaging 15.0 points against per game (fewest in the NFL). Stopping Taylor will be a big test. — Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction: Colts quarterback Carson Wentz will throw two interceptions against Buffalo. He has only three interceptions on the season, but the Bills have forced an NFL-high 24 turnovers, including 15 interceptions. Wentz, to his own acknowledgement, is a risk-taker when it comes to trying to make plays happen. The Bills, unlike other teams in the league, will make Wentz pay for taking those chances. — Mike Wells

Stat to know: The Bills have outscored opponents by 145 points this season, and the best point differential through 10 games in franchise history is plus-138 (1990). They currently rank second in points per game (31.1) and first in points allowed per game (15.0), meaning they could become the first team since the 2007 Patriots to lead the NFL in both scoring offense and scoring defense in Week 11 or later.



Mike Clay details how Michael Pittman Jr., T.Y. Hilton and the rest of the Colts’ receivers have a rough matchup vs. the Bills.

Injuries: Colts | Bills

What to know for fantasy: Buffalo receiver Stefon Diggs has been a top-30 WR in all three weeks following Buffalo’s bye, and at least one of his teammates has joined him each week. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Indianapolis has covered each of its past three games as a road underdog. Read more.

Wells’ pick: Bills 24, Colts 20
Getzenberg’s pick: Bills 27, Colts 24
FPI prediction: BUF, 76.3% (by an average of 9.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Colts’ wild-card hopes ride on beating good teams, starting with Bills, Bucs … Bills’ offensive line takes hit as Brown put on reserve/COVID-19 list … How did the Bills’ offense get back on track, and can they keep it going?

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
56.4 | Spread: PHI -1.5 (43)

What to watch for: The Eagles have had the league’s best rushing attack over the past three weeks, averaging an impressive 209 yards per game. The Saints, meanwhile, boast the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL. It’s strength on strength. Making things even more interesting: Philadelphia running back Miles Sanders could very well be back in the lineup after a multiweek absence due to an ankle injury. — Tim McManus

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Bold prediction: Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts’ hot streak will end with two turnovers. The Saints’ run defense is determined to make up for a rare flop in Philly last year, when both Hurts and Sanders ran for more than 100 yards — the only two players to do so in the same game against the Saints since 2017. New Orleans is also determined to avoid its first three-game losing streak since 2016. — Mike Triplett

Stat to know: The Saints are allowing an NFL-low 1.9 yards per zone-read rush this season. The Eagles lead the NFL in zone-read rushing yards (510).

Injuries: Saints | Eagles

What to know for fantasy: Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith isn’t just the WR1 over the past two weeks (45.2 fantasy points). He also ranks third among all flex players over that stretch, trailing only Jonathan Taylor and James Conner. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: New Orleans is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 outright as an underdog this season. And it is 9-1 ATS and 8-2 outright in its past 10 games as an underdog. Read more.

Triplett’s pick: Saints 25, Eagles 22
McManus’ pick: Saints 24, Eagles 20
FPI prediction: NO, 51.0% (by an average of 0.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Payton shows frustration after Saints squander back-to-back games … Jenkins returns to Philadelphia with legacy on his mind … Saints RB Kamara returns to practice after missing game with knee injury … Three reasons the Eagles could make the playoffs

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
41.8 | Spread: BAL -4.5 (45)

What to watch for: It’s all about Lamar Jackson vs. Justin Fields. The Bears hope Fields can one day emulate Jackson’s dominant style of play, and coach Matt Nagy called Jackson “special” on Wednesday. Fields added that Jackson does things that most other players cannot. With just four touchdowns to eight interceptions, Fields himself remains very much a work in progress. However, the rookie had a strong fourth quarter in Pittsburgh that Nagy thinks can carry over to the Ravens game. The Bears will need Fields to have a tremendous afternoon to knock off Baltimore. — Jeff Dickerson

Bold prediction: Jackson will run for 130 yards, which would be the most by a quarterback this season. Jackson has won all 12 of his starts against NFC teams, which is tied for the second-longest interconference streak by a quarterback to begin a career. A big reason for that success is how he uses his speed and elusiveness against NFC teams that are facing him for the first time. He’s averaging 92.9 yards rushing per game against the NFC. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: Ravens receiver Marquise Brown has three 100-receiving yard games this season, despite entering the year with just two on his career. Another would make him the fourth Ravens WR with four such games in a season in franchise history.



Matthew Berry explains why he’s so high on Bears running back David Montgomery against the Ravens.

Injuries: Ravens | Bears

What to know for fantasy: Fields was a top-10 QB in the two weeks prior to going on bye last week and faces a Ravens defense that gave up 314 passing yards to the Miami duo of Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett last Thursday night. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Chicago has failed to cover in each of its past seven games following a bye week. Read more.

Hensley’s pick: Ravens 28, Bears 24
Dickerson’s pick: Ravens 30, Bears 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 62.4% (by an average of 4.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Ravens QB Jackson misses practice with non-COVID-related illness … Ravens open to bringing Bell back after releasing him

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
38.0 | Spread: CAR -3.5 (43)

What to watch for: This is all about Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. How much of the game plan has Newton digested since arriving eight days ago — and what can Washington expect from a player who scored touchdowns on his first two of eight plays against Arizona last week? Washington ranks 27th in yards allowed with 376.5 per game, so you would expect Newton to find success with his dual-threat ability and running back Christian McCaffrey playing at a high level. — David Newton

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Bold prediction: Washington’s defense will hold Newton in check, keeping him under 150 passing yards. He will energize the Panthers and the stadium in his return, but it will be the Panthers’ defense that will be the difference, forcing two turnovers for the fourth consecutive game. — John Keim

Stat to know: The Panthers have allowed 29.2% of opponent drives to end in a touchdown or field goal, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Washington’s defensive rate is 48.4%, the NFL’s third highest.

Injuries: Washington | Panthers

What to know for fantasy: Washington receiver Terry McLaurin hasn’t been a top-30 fantasy receiver in four of his past five games. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke is 3-7 ATS in his career, including the playoffs. And two of those three covers have come against Tampa Bay. Read more.

Keim’s pick: Panthers 17, Washington 14
Newton’s pick: Panthers 24, Washington 13
FPI prediction: CAR, 62.4% (by an average of 4.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Washington secures its best win with 19-play march … I’m back!’: Newton energizes Panthers’ playoff hopes … Rivera confirms Young out for season with leg injury

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
35.4 | Spread: TEN -10 (44.5)

What to watch for: The Titans’ offense — and especially the rushing attack — struggled the past two weeks against two of the NFL’s toughest defenses. They’ll look to get back on track this week against the Texans, who are allowing 136 rushing yards per game. One thing to keep an eye on is how the roles will continue to develop for the running backs. D’Onta Foreman has been the best option so far, but Adrian Peterson has gotten the start in the past two games. — Turron Davenport

Bold prediction: Houston receiver Brandin Cooks will have his first game with 100 receiving yards since Week 3. Cooks was off to a great start with quarterback Tyrod Taylor, but after Taylor injured his left hamstring and was replaced by rookie quarterback Davis Mills, the offense struggled as a whole. On Sunday, Cooks is facing a Titans team that has allowed an average of 267.9 passing yards per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. In his last game against the Titans, at the end of the 2020 season, Cooks had 166 receiving yards and two touchdowns. — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: Peterson is one rushing touchdown away from tying Jim Brown for 10th on the all-time touchdowns list (126). He is currently tied with Walter Payton for 11th.



Matthew Berry and Field Yates both agree that D’Onta Foreman has the best chance to be the Titans break out running back.

Injuries: Texans | Titans

What to know for fantasy: On a per-game basis, Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill is QB6 over the past month, posting three top-12 finishes at the position over that stretch. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Houston has failed to cover each of its past four games. Read more.

Barshop’s pick: Titans 34, Texans 10
Davenport’s pick: Titans 35, Texans 17
FPI prediction: TEN, 83.0% (by an average of 12.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Texans looking for bounce-back after ‘uncharacteristic’ performance from QB Taylor … Titans’ pass rush, defense leading way for AFC’s top team … Will the Texans end up with the No. 1 pick? … Titans WR Brown opens up on battle with depression, encourages others to seek help

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
32.3 | Spread: CLE -11.5 (43.5)

What to watch for: How will Browns running back Nick Chubb look in his return from COVID-19? The virus affected Cleveland’s top defensive player, edge rusher Myles Garrett, last year significantly once he returned from the COVID list. But at 5-5, the Browns need their top offensive player to come back as his overpowering self. — Jake Trotter

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Bold prediction: Lions running back D’Andre Swift will eclipse the 100-yard rushing mark for the second straight week. With head coach Dan Campbell taking over offensive playcalling responsibilities, and the passing game struggling, it only makes sense to feed the hot hand in Swift — who is coming off a career-best 130-yard rushing performance. Swift has proved he can handle the load. — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: Garrett leads the NFL with 13 sacks. The Lions, meanwhile, have allowed 10 sacks over the past two games, which is tied for most in the NFL.

Injuries: Lions | Browns

What to know for fantasy: Swift had 33 carries last week in Pittsburgh, joining Derrick Henry as the only other player with a 30-carry game on his 2021 résumé. Be careful in assuming that level usage is here to stay, however, as he didn’t have a game with even 15 carries before that this season. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Despite Detroit’s winless record, it is 5-4 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS when getting at least four points. Read more.

Woodyard’s pick: Browns 27, Lions 17
Trotter’s pick: Browns 25, Lions 16
FPI prediction: CLE, 76.2% (by an average of 9.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Lions QB Goff day-to-day with oblique injury, says Campbell … Browns QB Mayfield says it’s the ‘most beat up’ he’s been in his NFL career … Browns must shake ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ mentality to make playoff run

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
31.2 | Spread: SF -6 (45)

What to watch for: The Jaguars’ defense has given up just 22 points in their past two games, including holding Buffalo to just a pair of field goals. But 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo has an 84.2 Total QBR over his past three games, the second-best mark in the NFL. Plus, the 49ers are using receiver Deebo Samuel all over the place, and that’s a wild card the Jaguars’ defense will have to manage. — Mike DiRocco

Bold prediction: 49ers tight end George Kittle will go for over 150 receiving yards and score two touchdowns. Kittle has scored in two straight games but has yet to reach the end zone multiple times in the same game this season. The Jaguars’ pass defense has struggled overall, and tight ends have been integral in opponents’ success. Jacksonville is allowing opposing tight ends to catch 75.8% of targets and average 8.8 yards per attempt (both of which are 29th in the NFL). That’s a recipe for Kittle to have a big day. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: Samuel sits at 979 receiving yards on the year and is seeking to join Jerry Rice as the only 49ers receivers to reach 1,000 receiving yards in the team’s first 10 games of a season. Rice did it four times.



Matthew Berry provides contingency plans for fantasy managers who have Elijah Mitchell on their roster.

Injuries: 49ers | Jaguars

What to know for fantasy: Two. That’s the number of tight ends who have more fantasy points over the past three weeks than the Jaguars’ Dan Arnold (38.5). See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: San Francisco has failed to cover in five of its past seven games, and it is 3-6 ATS this season, the fourth-worst cover percentage in the NFL. Read more.

Wagoner’s pick: 49ers 27, Jaguars 17
DiRocco’s pick: 49ers 28, Jaguars 14
FPI prediction: SF, 64.3% (by an average of 5.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: No NFL receiver is quite like 49ers’ Samuel … Lawrence: Jaguars’ offense has to improve, ‘And that starts with me’ … 49ers’ Mitchell expected to play Sunday despite broken finger … Tough conversations have helped Aiyuk find his footing

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
11.9 | Spread: MIA -3.5 (44.5)

What to watch for: The quarterback matchup is Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and his bad finger vs. New York’s Joe Flacco, who starts for the first time since last Nov. 22. Tagovailoa, who missed the past two starts with a fractured finger on his throwing hand, will face a defense that has allowed 175 points in the past four games. Flacco, the surprise starter over Mike White, needs to chuck and duck. The Dolphins lead the NFL with a 39% blitz rate, and Flacco doesn’t have the wheels to escape. — Rich Cimini

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Bold prediction: Miami will eclipse the 100-yard rushing mark for just the third time this season. The Jets own the NFL’s second-worst run defense in terms of expected points added over the past three weeks (minus-11.99), while the Dolphins have been the worst rushing offense in the NFL (2.5 yards per carry) over that span. Something has to give — and it’s going to be the visiting team. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Jets are the first team since the 1966 Giants to allow 45-plus points three times in a four-game span.

Injuries: Dolphins | Jets

What to know for fantasy: Over the past four weeks, the Jets’ Michael Carter is RB5 on a per-game basis, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game (ahead of Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler and Ezekiel Elliott, to name a few). See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Miami has covered six consecutive games against New York, but it is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2017 season. Read more.

Louis-Jacques’ pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 10
Cimini’s pick: Dolphins 20, Jets 11
FPI prediction: MIA, 62.8% (by an average of 4.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Dolphins defense blitzing its way back into top form … Jets can help historically bad defense in loaded 2022 NFL draft … Jets’ decision to start Flacco is puzzling but offers a silver lining

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
36.5 | Spread: CIN -1 (50.5)

What to watch for: Will the Raiders’ pass rush get after Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow? Las Vegas was shut out on the sack stat sheet for the first time this season Sunday against the Chiefs (though Raiders fans have lots of video showing Maxx Crosby being held and mauled all night long), and Yannick Ngakoue had two sacks in three of his previous four games. Burrow, meanwhile, has already been sacked 25 times, four times fewer than league leader Ryan Tannehill. Oh, and the last time Crosby faced the Bengals, as a rookie in 2019, he sacked Ryan Finley four times. — Paul Gutierrez

Bold prediction: Raiders quarterback Derek Carr will throw for more than 350 passing yards. Las Vegas has one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL and will be forced to pass in order to move the ball against the Bengals. Cincinnati has struggled in defending short passes the past two weeks, and Carr is 15th in the league in air yards per attempt, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. — Ben Baby

Stat to know: Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase has been held under 50 receiving yards in back-to-back games. He had more than 50 in each of his first seven games.

Injuries: Bengals | Raiders



Field Yates and Matthew Berry assess the fantasy value of Hunter Renfrow.

What to know for fantasy: The Bengals have produced a top-25 WR every week this season, five times putting two of their receivers in the top 30 at the position for a given week. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Overs are 11-2 at Allegiant Stadium since it opened last season. And four of Las Vegas’ five home games have gone over the total this season. Read more.

Baby’s pick: Raiders 31, Bengals 28
Gutierrez’s pick: Raiders 24, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: LV, 49.9% (by an average of 0.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: What is causing Bengals QB Burrow’s rising interception rate? … Can the Raiders stop another late-season collapse … Jackson provides highlight and lowlight for Raiders’ reshuffled WR corps

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
81.7 | Spread: KC -2.5 (56)

What to watch for: The Chiefs have improved dramatically on defense during their three-game winning streak. They’re allowing only 12 points per game over this stretch — but they haven’t played an opponent with the offensive firepower of the Cowboys. Dallas is the only team in the league in the top five in rushing and passing. Do the Chiefs have enough resources on defense to get the job done? — Adam Teicher

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Bold prediction: Dallas linebacker Micah Parsons will set the Cowboys’ single-season rookie record for sacks. He needs three against the Chiefs to break DeMarcus Ware’s record of eight in 2005; he has six on the season so far, including 3.5 in his past two games. The Cowboys will make him a matchup nightmare for the Kansas City offense. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been sacked 17 times this year, including nine times at home. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: According to ESPN coverage metrics and NFL Next Gen Stats, Mahomes has seen two high safeties at the NFL’s highest rate (61%). The Cowboys play two high safeties at the sixth-lowest rate (33%).

Injuries: Cowboys | Chiefs

What to know for fantasy: A matchup of Week 10’s top two quarterbacks could bring a lot of points. Last week was the third time this season that they both finished as top-six players at the position in the same week. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Kansas City is 0-5 ATS at home this season — and Dallas is 4-0 ATS on the road. Read more.

Archer’s pick: Cowboys 38, Chiefs 37
Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 30, Cowboys 26
FPI prediction: DAL, 50.3% (by an average of 0.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Inside the ‘deceptive’ mind of Cowboys offensive coordinator Moore … Mahomes won’t let the Chiefs’ improved defense ‘get overlooked’ … Cowboys bounce back, but next three games could determine their fate

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
78.7 | Spread: ARI -2.5 (48)

What to watch for: Each team has big questions at the quarterback position. For Arizona, it’s whether Kyler Murray will return from the ankle injury that sidelined him the past two games and how dangerous of a runner he’ll be if he does play. And if he doesn’t return, can backup Colt McCoy lead the Cardinals to a win over Seattle like he did last season with the Giants? For the Seahawks, the question is whether Russell Wilson is truly back from finger surgery and the monthlong layoff that followed. He was ineffective in his first game back but said his finger wasn’t the issue. — Brady Henderson

Bold prediction: Murray will return and throw for 350 yards and two touchdowns, while running for another two scores in a blowout win. He is 5-9 with a 54.8 Total QBR in 14 career starts against NFC West opponents, but he needs a big game to get the Cardinals back on track after last week’s loss. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: The Seahawks rank second in the NFL in run stop win rate (33.4%), while Cardinals rank third-worst (27.7%). But the Cardinals rank eighth in rush yards per game, while the Seahawks sit at 22nd.



Field Yates and Matthew Berry examine Tyler Lockett’s low fantasy production lately.

Injuries: Cardinals | Seahawks

What to know for fantasy: Last week was the sixth time this season that either DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett finished a week ranked outside the top 45 receivers … and they both did it. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: The under is 12-2 in Wilson’s past 14 starts. Read more.

Weinfuss’ pick: Cardinals 34, Seahawks 13
Henderson’s pick: Seahawks 21, Cardinals 20
FPI prediction: ARI, 56.9% (by an average of 2.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: How Cardinals coach Kingsbury has grown into the job … Playoffs for the Seahawks? Three reasons it’s not completely absurd … Cardinals QB Murray says he’s ‘pretty close’ to returning from ankle injury … Wilson: Finger not to blame for rare shutout loss

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating:
53.4 | Spread: LAC -6 (48.5)

What to watch for: The Chargers’ offense needs to be better. Quarterback Justin Herbert has six passing touchdowns and four interceptions over his past four games, and he has completed fewer than 60% of his passes in three of those four. He needs some help from receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen to get the offense going. The Steelers, meanwhile, could be starting Mason Rudolph or Ben Roethlisberger, so the Chargers’ defense has to prepare for both of them. — Shelley Smith

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Bold prediction: Steelers running back Najee Harris and Chargers running back Austin Ekeler will each gain 150 yards from scrimmage. Harris had a 100-yard rushing game against the Lions last week, but with a full week of Pittsburgh game-planning for an unpredictable quarterback situation, he should be even more involved in the offense against the Chargers. Plus, the Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ run defense was abysmal against the Lions and gave up 130 yards to D’Andre Swift. Ekeler has struggled recently, but with the Steelers’ defensive holes and inability to tackle right now, he could get back on track Sunday. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: The Chargers have allowed 30.8 points per game since Week 5, the second most in the NFL. They have also allowed 167.6 rush yards per game during that span, which is the most in the NFL.

Injuries: Steelers | Chargers

What to know for fantasy: Touchdowns drive the tight end position, and the best way to score is to get red zone looks. After seeing a total of two red zone targets in his first five games this season, Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth is averaging two per game over his past four outings. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: All three of Pittsburgh’s road games have gone under the total this season. Read more.

Pryor’s pick: Chargers 26, Steelers 17
Smith’s pick: Chargers 34, Steelers 21
FPI prediction: LAC, 64.4% (by an average of 5.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Tomlin: Steelers to build game plan for QB Rudolph, will leave ‘light on’ for Roethlisberger … ‘I really love doing this’: Staley’s optimism rubbing off on Chargers … Sources: Steelers safety Fitzpatrick tests positive for COVID-19 … Bolts’ Staley: Bosa on COVID list as close contact

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
Matchup rating:
60.7 | Spread: TB -11.5 (49.5)

What to watch for: The Giants might be a double-digit underdog against the Bucs, but that worked out just fine last week for Washington. Going back to 2017, the past four games between these two teams have all been decided by three points or less, with last year’s decided by two. Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is 5-3 against the Giants in his career, including the two Super Bowl losses. But he has won three straight against them since losing Super Bowl XLVI. — Jenna Laine

Bold prediction: Buccaneers receiver Chris Godwin will catch 10-plus passes with a touchdown. The Giants are vulnerable out of the slot, where they are splitting time between second-year cornerback Darnay Holmes and rookie Aaron Robinson. They have allowed the fifth-most yards (863) out of the slot already this season. Godwin’s 373 yards, meanwhile, is eighth best in the NFL. He’s going to have a feast on Monday night. — Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: Tampa Bay receiver Mike Evans has seven receiving TDs since Week 5 (most in NFL), and he is looking to catch a touchdown in four straight games for the third time in his career.



Louis Riddick explains why the Buccaneers could be in for a surprise against the Giants on Monday Night Football.

Injuries: Giants | Buccaneers

What to know for fantasy: Brady struggled last week and was QB14. The last time he was that low was Week 4 … and he promptly reeled off three top-five performances in his next four games. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: New York has covered three straight games and is 19-5 ATS as a road underdog over the past four seasons. Read more.

Raanan’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Giants 26
Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Giants 27
FPI prediction: TB, 78.4% (by an average of 10.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Health of Barkley, playmakers has Giants feeling optimistic … Arians on Buccaneers’ mistakes in loss: ‘The stupidity has to go away’ … Buccaneers place CB Sherman on injured reserve