It was a bumpy May for stocks.
The S&P 500 gained almost 1% over the month, although sales of high-tech and growth names made for a volatile stretch.
Nick Colas, Co-Founder of DataTrek Research, says it all came down to the result.
“The funny thing about this year is that we’ve seen more earnings revisions than stock price performance,” Colas told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” on Monday. “We saw that earnings expectations are up 12% this year. These will be the results for the second and third quarters.”
Analysts surveyed by FactSet currently expect S&P 500 earnings to rise roughly 60% in the second quarter versus the depressed pandemic quarter around this time last year. The big banks will start the season when they report in mid-July.
“The second quarter numbers still seem too low to us. So we should have another strong earnings season ahead of us, but it will be a tug of war until then,” said Colas.
Prepare for more volatility until the second quarter earnings season in mid-July gives direction to the markets, he adds.
“Expect exactly what you just saw for a few more weeks and then, when the gains take hold, another leg higher towards the end of the year,” he said.
Jay Jacobs, senior vice president and head of research and strategy at Global X ETFs, says any move towards infrastructure law should also boost investor sentiment. His company’s PAVE development development ETF was launched during the 2016 presidential cycle, and now he’s seeing even more appetite for activity in this area.
“If you will, it is very ripe for disruption, if you will, with an economy that is still below prime GDP,” Jacobs said in the same interview. “Investors are excited to see the prospect of what is probably the largest infrastructure bill we’ve ever had in the US, and a fund that is truly designed to own the winners of that type of bill – civil engineering companies, raw materials, transportation and heavy machinery companies that will build that infrastructure. “
The way for an infrastructure calculation is still unclear. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer said Friday that the Democrats would be working on a plan in June, with or without Republicans. The two parties share the total cost of a proposal.
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