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The biggest question regarding Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff is pretty straightforward: Can unranked Texas pull off an upset of No. 1 Alabama?
It might seem unlikely. There is a reason, after all, that Texas is a 20.5-point underdog according to FOX Bet — even while playing at home.
If the Longhorns are able to give themselves a chance, however, there are certain questions that will have to be answered. RJ Young and Geoff Schwartz broke down the key points on “The Number One College Football Show.”
Alabama vs. Texas: Keys to the game
RJ Young and Geoff Schwartz break down Saturday’s matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Texas Longhorns.
Overcoming the Blue-Chip Ratio
The Blue-Chip Ratio, a metric that has been around since 2013, is a method of measuring the minimum level of recruiting required to compete for a national championship. Put simply, a team needs to sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-star players to contend.
Last season, Georgia won the national title with an 80% Blue-Chip Ratio, beating Alabama, which had 84%. This season, Alabama again leads the nation at 89%, followed by Ohio State (80%) and Georgia (77%). Texas is at 68%.
“We know the Blue-Chip Ratio is a thing,” Schwartz said. “They’re just better football players. … Yes, Sark has recruited well. They’re building something at Texas, I believe. But they’re not good enough to compete with Alabama for four quarters. Maybe for a little bit of time. … But we’re talking about over 60 minutes [against] a Nick Saban team that has been preparing for this game all offseason.”
Young explained more about the Blue-Chip Ratio and how sheer talent can overpower coaching and scheme: “At least 60% of your roster needs to be 4- of 5-star players to win the national championship, just off the jump,” he said. “If my Jimmys are better than your Joes, it doesn’t matter what we’re running, it doesn’t matter how good a coach you are. I have better players than you, so we will win. And Vegas seems to think the same thing. In fact, when I looked at FOX Bet this morning they were a three-touchdown favorite.”
Controlling Will Anderson, Jr.
Speaking of talent disparities, the Longhorns face a major problem — Alabama linebacker Anderson. The defensive standout is a problem, and Texas will be trying to keep him out of their backfield primarily with freshman tackle Kelvin Banks.
Any edge Sarkisian might have in knowing the Tide’s defensive schemes could be blown up by this matchup alone, Schwartz said.
“You have a true freshman left tackle in Kelvin Banks playing significant reps for Texas, against Will Anderson,” he said. “You might know as much as you know about scheme, but sometimes your dudes need to win the one-on-one matchups, and I think Banks is going to have his hands full.
“I think Texas keeps this game close early on, but eventually when you have to kind of get out of that first 15 plays, and you start to getting those third-and-long situations … over the course of the game, that’ll be a concern.”
Taking advantage of … advantages
On paper, Texas doesn’t have the advantage in many head-to-head matchups vs. Alabama. But the Longhorns do have a big one in running back Bijan Robinson.
Robinson, a top-10 Heisman Trophy candidate according to FOX Bet, rushed for 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns as a sophomore last season and averaged 5.8 yards per carry.
But that won’t mean anything if the Texas defense can’t slow down Bama’s high-powered offense. And that’s the big question for Young.
“I genuinely believe that Quinn Ewers is on par with Bryce Young as far as his ability to make plays,” Young said. “But I think it’s the defense for Texas that is worrying. This is a defense that had a difficult time keeping the lid on, giving up more than 450 yards of offense last year. … If you can keep your offense in the game, your offense is going to find its rhythm and take some shots, against an Alabama defense that is pretty good.”
“Is Texas’ defense going to stop Alabama at all?” Schwartz said. “If Bama puts up 35 points, do you expect Texas to also put up in the 30s against Alabama to keep this game close? I would think probably not.”
In addition to talking Alabama-Texas, Young and Schwartz also broke down No. 20 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Florida, No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 21 BYU, and Iowa State at Iowa.
You can catch more of the conversation from “The Number One College Football Show” on YouTube, or by subscribing to the show on Apple podcasts or your favorite podcast app.
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