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The bet: Kansas City Chiefs under 10.5 wins (-105)
Best case: Kansas City had the second healthiest offense and third healthiest defense last season. It has the toughest strength of schedule in the league this season, playing against the AFC South and NFC West, as well as the Bills, Bucs and Bengals. Oh, and don’t forget about the Chiefs division. Each team in the AFC West made significant improvements to their rosters. Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost two key players in wide receiver Tyreek Hill and safety Tyrann Mathieu. While the Chiefs added three additional receivers this offseason, the cards do feel stacked against them in terms of natural regression, a tough schedule and injury luck.
Worst case: While the Chiefs offense regressed last season and their defense ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, they still ended the season with 12 wins. There is a chance the Chiefs will stay dominant in a loaded AFC West, but it feels the stars would have to align for them in that capacity.
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Betting spin: Kansas City has hit over 10.5 wins in seven of the nine seasons under head coach Andy Reid. The Chiefs have also hit over 10.5 wins in all four seasons under Patrick Mahomes and Reid. It’s a tough sell, as the Chiefs have been dominant with one Super Bowl win and another Super Bowl appearance the following season under Mahomes and Reid. With that said, I do believe the Chiefs will go under 10.5.